Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, August 6th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened flat with little to drive trading this morning. Stocks are showing gains of 61 points in the Dow and 122 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (4.21%), but another round of afternoon gains should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

1/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.21

61

Dow

44,173

122

NASDAQ

21,039

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM
Created with Raphaël 2.1.20%1.7225%3.445%5.1674999999999995%6.89%7/24/20257/17/20257/10/20257/3/20256/26/20256/18/20256/12/20256/5/20255/29/20255/22/20255/15/2025
National Average
7/31/2025
30 Year Fixed: 6.72%
15 Year Fixed: 5.85%
5/1 ARM: 0%

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Today’s only relevant event is the 10-year Treasury Note auction. There has been plenty of discussion about tariff-fueled inflation being a hurdle for bonds and lower mortgage rates. While they may very well be an issue, another headwind for the bond market is the large amount of debt that the markets are expecting. Not only government debt that is needed to fund the budget shortfall, but also corporate debt sales that will contribute to a significant amount of supply hitting the market this year. Whether or not investors have an appetite for that amount of debt remains to be seen. That is why sales like today’s 10-year Note and tomorrow’s 30-year Bond auctions are going to draw so much attention.

Medium

Unknown

General Bond Trends

Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, meaning if there is a reaction, it should come during early afternoon trading today and/or tomorrow. Good news for mortgage rates would be a strong demand for the securities, which would ease some concern over investor appetite for long-term debt and could lead to an intraday improvement in rates. On the other hand, lackluster interest from investors may cause bond weakness and an increase in mortgage pricing before the end of the day.

Medium

Unknown

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Tomorrow brings us the release of two moderately important economic reports at 8:30 AM ET. One is the weekly unemployment update that is expected to show 220,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made. This would be an increase from the previous week’s 218,000 initial filings to signal the employment sector weakened slightly last week. Good news for rates would be a sizable increase in new claims.

Medium

Unknown

Productivity and Costs (Quarterly)

We will also get the 2nd quarter Productivity and Costs Index. Forecasts show a 2.0% increase in worker output after declining 1.5% during the first three months of the year. Employee productivity is relevant because a higher level of output per hour is believed to mean that the economy can expand without inflation concerns. This release also includes a reading on labor costs that can be quite influential if it shows a surprise. A larger rise in output and a softer increase in labor costs would be favorable for rates.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


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Suite 280
Cupertino, CA 95014

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